DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240644
SWODY2
SPC AC 240643

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CST MON FEB 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN NOAM DAY
2/TUESDAY...WHILE A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD REMAINS OVER THE ERN
2/3 OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
FIELD...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG RAPIDLY IN A SEWD ARC
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL U.S. WITH
TIME...EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE EWD AS IT MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE SEWD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...DRIVING THE PERSISTENT
W-E SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE STEADILY SWD ACROSS TX AND THE GULF
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
REACHED THE NRN GULF...REMAINING ONSHORE ONLY ACROSS DEEP S TX...AS
WELL AS N FL/SERN GA AND POSSIBLY COASTAL SC.

AS THIS FRONT SURGES SWD...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED N OF
THE FRONT WITHIN THE ANAFRONTAL/WARM ADVECTION-TYPE REGIME OVER THE
S CENTRAL AND SERN CONUS. WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE ELEVATED NATURE
OF THE CONVECTION LARGELY PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK. AN
AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED STORM OR TWO ACROSS FL /OR POSSIBLY ACROSS
CENTRAL TX JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT/...COULD PRODUCE A STRONGER GUST
/OR SMALL HAIL/ RESPECTIVELY...BUT ANY SUCH RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT EVEN LOW PROBABILITY AREAL INCLUSION ATTM.

..GOSS.. 02/24/2014

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