DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190823
SWODY3
SPC AC 190822

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SWD TO N FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AREA SHIFTS NNEWD INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
DIGGING SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN BROAD LONG-WAVE
TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP/OCCLUDING SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE
LK SUPERIOR VICINITY WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS ONTARIO WITH TIME...WHILE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS FROM THE E COAST STATES INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY FOCUS A LINE OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO N FL...
WITH THE RAPIDLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND
ALREADY WELL E OF THE APPALACHIANS BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD...LITTLE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
INLAND/AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS. STILL...WITH A MOIST/MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AVAILABLE...EXPECT A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST --
PARTICULARLY WITHIN A ZONE FROM SERN VA SWWD ACROSS ERN NC.

THOUGH THE STRONGEST UVV/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL N
OF THE AREA -- I.E. SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AND
ADJACENT ERN CANADA...THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE....PRIOR TO STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

..GOSS.. 02/19/2014

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