DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 270800
SWODY3
SPC AC 270759

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CST THU FEB 27 2014

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO CA FRIDAY WILL
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SWRN
STATES AND MERGES WITH NRN STREAM. AT THE SFC...A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE NERN
STATES SWWD THROUGH NRN AR INTO NWRN TX AND THEN NWWD THROUGH CO.

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION...

MODIFYING GULF AIR WILL RETURN THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SATURDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S AS FAR NORTH AS THE RED RIVER AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE EML WILL
ADVECT ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. MUCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG MAY DEVELOP FROM SRN THROUGH
CNTRL AND NCNTRL TX WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY FARTHER NE
ALONG THE FRONT FROM ERN OK INTO NRN AR. HOWEVER...THE EML WILL ALSO
CAP MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR.

NEVERTHELESS...ELEVATED STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST LIKELY ZONE OF INITIATION APPEARS ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
EML FROM EXTREME ERN OK INTO SRN MO AND NRN AR WITHIN ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING
LLJ. IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS REGION IT APPEARS THAT LAPSE
RATES...INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS
OUTLOOK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER
STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MIGHT NOT OCCUR IN MUCH OF THIS REGION
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

..DIAL.. 02/27/2014

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