DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240941
SWOD48
SPC AC 240940

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST MON FEB 24 2014

VALID 271200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT/SIMILAR THROUGH DAY 6 /SAT.
3-1/ WITH EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES. WITHIN THIS TIME
FRAME...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ERN U.S. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST...WITH COOL/CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE E OF THE ROCKIES. A
FEATURE EJECTING EWD OUT OF THE WRN U.S. DAY 5 -- MENTIONED IN THE
PRIOR OUTLOOK -- IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS CROSSES THE S
CENTRAL/SERN CONUS...GRADUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER
ERN U.S. CYCLONIC FLOW. WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE...A PERSISTENTLY COOL/INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT ANY DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE
RISK.

MODELS HINT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SYSTEM
BEYOND DAY 6...THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SERN
STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BE STRONGER...AND
ABLE TO ADVECT A MORE COMPLETELY MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS
NWD/INLAND...SUBSTANTIAL TIMING DIFFERENCES APPARENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS PRECLUDE ANY ATTEMPTS TO HIGHLIGHT ANY SPECIFIC
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK ATTM.

..GOSS.. 02/24/2014

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