DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250957
SWOD48
SPC AC 250956

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

VALID 281200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS -- SUGGESTING THAT A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING THE
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES. DECENT MODEL-TO-MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ONLY
THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 5 /SAT. 3-1/...AS RIDGING GRADUALLY EVOLVES OVER
THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL MOVE INLAND...POSSIBLY PHASING TO SOME DEGREE WITH
NRN-STREAM ENERGY OVER WRN CANADA TO RESULT IN WRN U.S. TROUGHING.

DURING THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD...SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS
MINIMAL...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO RESIDE OVER
THE WRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC UPPER SYSTEM.

AN INCREASED RISK FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST INTO PARTS OF
THE S CENTRAL AND SERN U.S. LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THIS WRN SYSTEM
ADVANCES EWD. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASINGLY SUBSTANTIAL VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH TIME...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BEYOND
DAY 5.

..GOSS.. 02/25/2014

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