DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260957
SWOD48
SPC AC 260956

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST WED FEB 26 2014

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WITH
CONSISTENCY...WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS
EVIDENT INTO DAY 5 /SUN. 3-2/...WITH SUFFICIENT DIFFERENCES EMERGING
FROM THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY 5 PERIOD ONWARD SO AS TO YIELD
INCREASINGLY DIMINISHED FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FOCUSING ON THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN DEPICTING
THE PROGRESSION/WEAKENING OF AN ERN PACIFIC LOW AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS SRN CA AND INTO AZ DAY 4 /SAT. 3-1/. MODEL SIMILARITY
DIMINISHES THOUGH INTO DAY 5...AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES TOWARD -- AND IN THE CASE OF THE FASTER ECMWF INTO -- THE
SRN PLAINS DAY 5.

WHILE DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN ROCKIES DAY 4...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION -- AND
POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE RISK -- APPEARS POSSIBLE DAY 5 AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE TX VICINITY. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...AREAS
OF GREATER RISK REMAIN DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN. THAT BEING
SAID...ISOLATED STORMS -- WITH SOME SEVERE RISK POSSIBLE -- SHOULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF E TX...AND THEN POSSIBLY PARTS OF LA LATER IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY OVERALL -- INCLUDING DOUBTS REGARDING
OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF RISK -- PRECLUDE HIGHLIGHTING A 30%-EQUIVALENT
RISK AREA THIS FORECAST.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TIMING/EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH DAY 5 AND BEYOND...THUS PRECLUDING
ANY ASSESSMENT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 02/26/2014

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