DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280950
SWOD48
SPC AC 280950

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN INTRUSION OF CONTINENTAL POLAR TRAJECTORIES WILL HAVE OCCURRED
ACROSS MOST AREAS E OF THE ROCKIES BY D4/MON...WHICH WILL LARGELY
PRECLUDE THE SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT MARKING
THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE TRAJECTORIES WILL BE CLEARING THE SERN
CONUS COAST ON D4/MON. AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AWAY FROM RICHER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...POOR
LAPSE RATES PRECEDING THIS BOUNDARY WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE SVR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODEST DEEP
SHEAR.

LATE NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD BE THE CATALYST
FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RELATED WARM SECTOR TO GLANCE INLAND AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE ERN GULF COAST -- INCLUDING THE FL PENINSULA AND
KEYS -- ON D7/THU AND/OR D8/FRI WHEN SOME SVR POTENTIAL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL DISPARITIES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THESE DEVELOPMENTS PRECLUDES THE DESIGNATION OF ANY
AOA-30-PERCENT SVR THUNDERSTORM AREAS AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 02/28/2014

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