MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0063

ACUS11 KWNS 041207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041207
MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-041700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 041207Z - 041700Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM ERN
KS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MO. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER
HOUR WILL BE COMMON AS BANDS INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A WELL-DEFINED DRY
SLOT MOVING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX. AHEAD OF THIS DRY
SLOT...A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS LOCATED FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS WHERE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING. AS A JET MAX NEAR 700 MB MOVES NEWD INTO
THE OZARKS THIS MORNING...MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY INCREASE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET ACROSS ERN KS AND
WCNTRL MO. THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR LIKELY IN THE MORE
INTENSE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST WRF-HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL INITIALLY OCCUR IN A CORRIDOR
FROM JOPLIN NWD TO JUST EAST OF KANSAS CITY WITH ANOTHER BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD LATER
THIS MORNING.

..BROYLES.. 02/04/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39609426 39879295 39819209 39219158 37619135 37099149
36559218 36359376 36809493 37539572 38869575 39299509
39609426

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