MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0069

ACUS11 KWNS 050113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050112
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-050715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND NERN OH / W-CNTRL AND NWRN PA / FAR WRN
NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 050112Z - 050715Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST
TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER N-CNTRL OH AND SPREAD
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN OH AND AREAS IN NWRN PA AND FAR WRN NY.
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES MAY INTERMITTENTLY APPROACH 2 INCHES PER
HOUR OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA PRIOR TO 06Z.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
WINTER PRECIP OVER IN/OH/KY DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS S-CNTRL OH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE 00Z/05 ILN RAOB DEPICTED A LARGELY SATURATED
COLUMN WITH A H85 WARM NOSE /-0.5 DEG C/. THE RAPID NWD FLUX OF
RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT /PW 1.3 INCH BNA RAOB/ ADVECTING
INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY VIA A 75 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING/HEAVY PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS
ASCENT/WAA INCREASES.

THE 18Z NAM APPEARED TO REASONABLY CAPTURE THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER SWRN OH EARLY THIS EVENING COMPARED TO
THE 00Z ILN RAOB. 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGEOVER
FROM SNOW TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW OVER CNTRL OH TOWARDS 04Z.
OBSERVATIONS WITHIN THE PAST 30 MINUTES IN DAYTON AND CINCINNATI
INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IS IN THE PROCESS OF
OCCURRING--CONFIRMING THIS NOTION OF MIXED P-TYPE MOVING INTO SWRN
OH. FARTHER N...A COLDER COLUMN WILL MAINTAIN SNOW AS THE PRECIP
TYPE AND RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RANGE BY MID EVENING. SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT MAY LOCALLY
BOOST RATES TO NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER NERN OH
AND FAR NWRN PA.

..SMITH.. 02/05/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 41147805 39888285 40518340 41218326 42417908 42247819
41757782 41147805

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