MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0115

ACUS11 KWNS 191536
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191535
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-192130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NY...FAR NW CT...MA...VT...NH...SW ME

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 191535Z - 192130Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE NY SPREADING
NEWD ACROSS NW CT...MA...VT...NH INTO SW MAINE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY
APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NY SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40
TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING...HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE
MCD AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALBANY NY
SHOW AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. THIS PROFILE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING IN THE CATSKILLS. HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD
ACROSS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER BANDS. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS...A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS IN
MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY AS ALL SNOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES.

..BROYLES.. 02/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 42417233 41627387 41657475 41937503 42587477 43687335
44627224 45127157 45547078 45497032 45156997 44696966
44376964 44066996 43477077 42417233

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