DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011253
SWODY1
SPC AC 011250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2014

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE...BROADLY CYCLONIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH SUN. STRONG E PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED
CA YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE ESE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN CA LATER TODAY...AND
AZ TNGT...BEFORE REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUN.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH...STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM
THE SRN RCKYS AND SRN PLNS INTO THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS.

AT THE SFC...DESPITE LARGELY ZONAL FLOW...PERSISTENT ANTICYLOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM JET WILL DRIVE A SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD
FRONT STEADILY S ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...AND MORE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE
MID MS VLY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR STRONG ELEVATED
STORMS LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF AR/KS/MO/OK. IN THE MEAN
TIME...SCTD DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR SYSTEM CROSSING THE SWRN U.S.

...SRN PLNS/OZARKS TNGT/EARLY SUN...
SWLY LOW-LVL JET STREAM WILL INCREASE TNGT AND EARLY SUN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SW U.S. UPR TROUGH. THIS WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN
AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT MOVING S ACROSS OK/SE KS AND THE NRN
OZARKS. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLOW AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND...ESPECIALLY...BEHIND FRONT TNGT THROUGH 12Z SUN OVER NRN/WRN
AR...SE KS...CNTRL/ERN OK...AND MUCH OF MO. WITH TIME...THIS
ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF TX AND THE LWR OH VLY.

PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/EML ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW AMIDST INCREASING MOISTURE AND
APPRECIABLE /40-50 KT/ CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL...DESPITE INCREASINGLY COLD/DRY
NATURE OF UNDERCUTTING ARCTIC AIR MASS. WHILE A SFC OR NEARLY
SFC-BASED STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...MAINLY NEAR THE RED
RVR THIS EVE OR EARLY TNGT...EML CAP SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT.

...SW U.S. TODAY/TNGT...
SCTD AREAS OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SRN CA EWD
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/CNTRL RCKYS THIS PERIOD AS DEAMPLIFYING
E PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES GENERALLY E ACROSS REGION. GRADUAL
RELAXATION OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPR-LVL WIND AND ASCENT FIELDS SUGGESTS
THAT ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. BUT RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT
COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING
MAY YIELD A STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.

..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 03/01/2014

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