DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111237
SWODY1
SPC AC 111236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MO AND OH VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AN INITIAL LEE CYCLONE IN NW KS WILL DEVELOP EWD TO W CENTRAL MO BY
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE DEEPENING WHILE PROGRESSING EWD
OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN
IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM CO/WY...AS PHASING BEGINS TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT WITH A
SEPARATE NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE TODAY...AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
SPREAD NWD/NEWD FROM E TX. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE INHIBITED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK BUOYANCY IN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NRN MO IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTION WILL THEN SPREAD
EWD/ESEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING INTO SW MO.
WHILE SBCAPE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG...DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SOME SUPERCELL RISK
WITH THE INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL MO THIS EVENING...AND
MORE LINEAR CONVECTION FARTHER SW ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES... WHILE STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ON THE COLD FRONT.
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SWLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS FROM SRN MO TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONVECTION WILL
BECOME LARGELY ELEVATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK BUOYANCY.
THUS...THE WIND/HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH EWD
EXTENT FROM NRN/CENTRAL MO THIS EVENING.

...N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE EWD AND WEAKEN AS THE NRN STREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES BY
TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEY REGION. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS ONGOING S OF LA...WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...SUCH THAT THE RICHER MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL NOT SPREAD INLAND MUCH BEYOND
THE IMMEDIATE N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 03/11/2014

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