DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231923
SWODY1
SPC AC 231922

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE TX GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
LINE...OTHERWISE NO-SEVERE OUTLOOK CONTINUES.

..JEWELL.. 03/23/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD OFF THE GULF
COAST AND SEWD OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. THERE
WILL BE TWO PRIMARY THREAT AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY - THE NE
GULF COAST AND CENTRAL TX TO SRN LA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS ONGOING NEAR PENSACOLA. THIS CLUSTER
MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE MOVING EWD/ESEWD ALONG A
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY GRADIENT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND INTO
N FL. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO N FL/SE GA
WILL BE WEAK BASED ON ONLY 5-15 KT WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DESTABILIZATION INLAND SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES ARE UNNECESSARY.

A SEPARATE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX IN A ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK WAA IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER...ABOVE A SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS. THESE STORMS WILL
SPREAD EWD...WHILE ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER
TODAY OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAIN/SE TX AND SPREAD INTO SRN LA.
THOUGH 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DRT/BRO/CRP/LCH ALL REVEALED MUCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM... INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONTS SAGS
SWD AND CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
THUS...ANY RISK FOR HAIL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT THE
ADDITION OF PROBABILITY AREAS.

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