DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101950
SWODY1
SPC AC 101948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN A MINOR WWD EXPANSION OF
THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA IN S TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN COAHUILA
MEXICO...AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT BENEATH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
PERTURBATION. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER INTO S
TX LATER TODAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EWD. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..COHEN.. 03/10/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/

TWO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE CONUS
TODAY...WITH BOTH SYSTEMS POSING SOME RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY.

...NORTHWEST US...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
PARTS OF ORE/NORTHERN CA. THE ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WA/ORE/ID/NV. THIS THREAT SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.

...TX/LA...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH TX. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

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