ACUS01 KWNS 111623
SWODY1
SPC AC 111621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER CO. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
FROM KS INTO SOUTHERN IND BY 12Z WED. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL STRENGTH RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...DRAWING 50S DEWPOINTS AS
FAR NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS MO/IL. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AS THE PRIMARY UPPER
FORCING IMPINGES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN. CAPE VALUES WILL BE WEAK...BUT RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IL INTO IN/KY OVERNIGHT...WHERE
VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL HELP OFFSET MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM THE MOST INTENSE CELLS
ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
...GULF COAST REGION...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE UPPER TX GULF COAST. A
LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AFFECTING PARTS OF LA/MS. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION INLAND.
WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE MS DELTA REGION
OF SOUTHEAST LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
..HART/CORFIDI.. 03/11/2014
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