DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080601
SWODY1
SPC AC 080559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST FRI MAR 07 2014

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE 00Z NAM IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE SWRN TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES TODAY. THE NAM INDICATED A STRONG NLY MID
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS PORTION OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN
THE SWD ADVANCEMENT OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. BY 09/00Z...THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE ARKLATEX SSWWD THROUGH E TX...THE
MIDDLE AND SOUTH TX COASTAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER EXTENT OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY /AT ROUGHLY 40 SSE LRD/. WHILE PART OF THE WRN
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NRN MEXICO /FAR NRN COAHUILA
AND MUCH OF NRN CHIHUAHUA/ BY 18Z...THE PORTION THEN TRAILING NWWD
WILL MOVE FROM SWRN NM INTO FAR SERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL/SOUTH TX...
A GENERAL NO CHANGE IN 500-MB HEIGHTS AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSES TRAVERSING THIS REGION SUGGEST THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISMS WILL BE FRONTAL UPLIFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH TX WITH AN OVERALL LIMITED
INFLUX OF MOISTURE BENEATH A CAP. THIS IN ADDITION TO MODEST
DIABATIC HEATING WILL TEMPER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS.

...FAR SERN AZ/FAR SWRN NM...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/BETWEEN 400-600 MB/ INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH MOVES SWD...WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER WEAK...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWWD AND OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION /INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES/ SUGGEST A STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 100 J PER KG/ AND WEAK
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY.

..PETERS/MOSIER.. 03/08/2014

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