DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101706
SWODY2
SPC AC 101705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE PACIFIC NW AND
NRN CA WILL PROGRESS EWD AND COVER THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN EARLY D2/TUE. ON D2/TUE...A HIGHER-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIG SSEWD INTO THE N-CNTRL CONUS FROM THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHEAR THE WRN-CONUS IMPULSE EWD -- THE ERN EXTENT
OF WHICH WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES/PLAINS TO
THE MID MS VALLEY BEFORE PHASING WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH. A SFC
LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG A FRONT FROM N-CNTRL KS TO ERN OH...WHICH
WILL BE REINFORCED BY ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION OVERTAKING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...AND PLAINS.

...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER/TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /E.G. PW AOA 1.5 INCHES/
AND RELATIVELY HIGHER BUOYANCY WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...OF WHICH ABUNDANT GULF CONVECTION WILL PROCESS.
HOWEVER...SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOCATED TO THE S/SE OF THE FRONT
WILL PROMOTE THE INFLUX OF AT LEAST PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE...WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 50S SFC DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO EXTEND
INTO THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...DIABATIC SFC HEATING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-3-KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM
THOUGH WITH ONLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY...WHILE MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING OCCUR. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL/DEEPER ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE EVENING...WHEN THE
EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ACCOMPANYING THE SHEARING
IMPULSE APPROACHES SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...AND A REINFORCING COLD SURGE OVERTAKES A TROUGH TRAILING
SSW OF THE SFC LOW. IN RESPONSE...SFC-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THESE MERGING SFC FEATURES IN CNTRL/ERN MO TUE EVE BEFORE
SPREADING EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TUE NIGHT...WHILE A SWLY LLJ
INCREASES TO 40-50 KT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX.

WITH H5 WSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO 45-55 KT THROUGH THE EVENING ABOVE
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED -- PERHAPS AS
A LINE IN PROXIMITY TO THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. STRONG SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE RISES SUCCEEDING THE FRONT COUPLED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LLJ SUGGEST SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION...DESPITE THE PAUCITY OF TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST AND VICINITY...
ABUNDANT CONVECTION WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
TANDEM WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF WATERS.
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GRAZE THE COAST AND
VICINITY FROM SRN LA TO THE FL BIG BEND. HOWEVER...AS THIS
CONVECTION LARGELY PROCESSES HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E S OF THE
COAST...ANY INLAND CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY DCVA AND MODEST WARM
ADVECTION PRECEDING THE TROUGH SHOULD BE MAINLY ELEVATED AND LIKELY
SUB-SEVERE.

..COHEN.. 03/10/2014

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