DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020627
SWODY2
SPC AC 020626

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN NC COAST TO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST MON MORNING WILL ADVANCE SEWD BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
NRN FL PENINSULA. MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID DAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SERN MS AND SRN AL WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS ENHANCED
BY A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL JET MAX. HOWEVER...POOR TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MITIGATE THE SVR
POTENTIAL. STORM CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE AS A
PRE-FRONTAL LLJ WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

ADDITIONALLY...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SRN-STREAM
IMPULSE COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MON NIGHT OVER
CNTRL/SRN TX...WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE ROOTED ATOP A SFC-BASED COLD DOME AND SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. ONLY MODEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT AMIDST LIMITED DEEP ASCENT PRECLUDES SVR PROBABILITIES.

A FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN CA TO THE NRN
GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN OVERALL
DEARTH OF BUOYANCY THAT WILL BE DISTRIBUTED THROUGH NARROW CAPE
PROFILES...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT...THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR GENERAL THUNDER
DESIGNATION.

..COHEN.. 03/02/2014

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