DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240523
SWODY2
SPC AC 240522

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH STILL
APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BUT...WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE PATTERN THAT MODELS SUGGEST
WILL TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE...IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
CYCLONE...EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AT 12Z TUESDAY...IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO AREAS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRYING
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MID/UPPER TROUGHING MIGRATING INLAND WITHIN THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE DEGREE OF INLAND MOISTENING WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY MODEST.

MOISTENING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT THIS PROBABLY
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE STRONGER HEATING AND UPSLOPE REGIME WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...PERHAPS NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD ADVECT ACROSS THE
RIVER INTO TEXAS...WHERE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION.

MEANWHILE...THE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET /500 MB TEMPS OF -24 TO -30C/
SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHER STORMS MAY NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL SEEMS
NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 03/24/2014

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