DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050556
SWODY2
SPC AC 050555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST TUE MAR 04 2014

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
AMPLIFYING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY AS IT TRAVERSES THE SRN PLAINS DURING D1/WED BEFORE
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE N GULF COAST VICINITY ON D2/THU. MASS
RESPONSES ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL STIMULATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS FL IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE DEEP SHEAR WITHIN THE
SERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TORNADOES MAY BE OF CONCERN. WHILE SLIGHT-RISK
DESIGNATION MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT EVOLVING IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST AT THIS
TIME FOR CATEGORICAL DESIGNATION.

SPECIFICALLY...RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC CYCLOGENETIC
RESPONSE. SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A MORE CONSOLIDATED CYCLONE
WILL NOT FORM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE UNTIL TROUGH-PRECEDING
ASCENT OVERLIES THE GULF STREAM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS
SUCH...PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE FL WARM SECTOR MAY TEND TO
BE LESS FOCUSED...WITH ONLY WEAKER/BROADER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR. IF THE LESS-CONSOLIDATED CYCLONE SOLUTION DOES INDEED
MATERIALIZE...THERE MAY STILL BE A CONCERN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION TO BE ENHANCED OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT IN THE GULF --
AIDED BY STRONG UPPER VENTILATION ACCOMPANYING A 110-KT 250-MB JET
MAX AND LOWER-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES LEADING THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH THE WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST FL
PENINSULA COAST AND KEYS. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER FLOW COULD HAVE
A TENDENCY OF SPREADING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER INLAND AREAS TO
RESTRICT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. AS SUCH...CONVECTION MAY TEND TO
WEAKEN AS IT OUTRUNS THE LAGGING DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER
TROUGH AND TRACKS OVER THE COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS AND
CLOUD-STUNTED INLAND DIURNAL HEATING. THE STRONGER
ASCENT...TROUGH-ATTENDANT SFC FRONTAL ASCENT...AND MORE NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR MAY NOT CROSS THE
PENINSULA UNTIL THU EVENING/NIGHT AFTER ANY DIURNAL BUOYANCY IS
DEPLETED BY CONVECTION...AND THIS COULD GREATLY RESTRICT THE SVR
POTENTIAL/INLAND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

DESPITE THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR SVR STORMS...THE INCREASE IN H5
SWLY/S TO 40-60 KT AND H7 SWLY/S TO 30-40 KT AMIDST MARGINAL
BUOYANCY SUPPORTING AT LEAST MODEST DEEP SHEAR AND ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...AND INFLUX OF CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PW /VALUES
OVER 1.5 INCHES/...ALL GIVE RISE TO SOME CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR
STORMS. THE RISK WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN AREAS WHERE STRONGER DIURNAL
HEATING CAN MATERIALIZE /PERHAPS ACROSS SE FL/...THOUGH THESE
LOCATIONS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE CONDITIONALITY OF THIS
RISK AND SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH AND ANTECEDENT GULF CONVECTION...A SLIGHT-RISK AREA HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 03/05/2014

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