DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241655
SWODY2
SPC AC 241653

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH FL...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...IN EXCESS OF 100KT AT 500MB...WILL DIG
SEWD ACROSS SERN KS INTO GA BY 26/00Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
INDUCE INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THAT
WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS GULF/ATLANTIC COASTS.
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER SOUTH FL...MOIST BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR A THREAT OF CONVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND MAY ATTAIN HEIGHTS NECESSARY
FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. EVEN SO...MAJORITY OF TSTMS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OFFSHORE WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

...SRN ROCKIES/WEST TX...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN BAJA
PENINSULA EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE APPROACHING FAR WEST TX
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SIGNIFICANT DCVA/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL INDUCE ASCENT ACROSS THIS
REGION SUCH THAT SCT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE. WITH
TIME INCREASING LLJ SHOULD ENCOURAGE NEWD DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION INTO
THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE IF LIFTING PARCELS NEAR 700MB AND BUOYANCY
WILL BE TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF HAIL.

...PACIFIC NW...

STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND AROUND 26/00Z ALONG THE
ORE/NRN CA COAST. SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING AND STEEPENING
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION IN THE LOWEST 6KM. DOWNSTREAM...STRONG
HEATING ACROSS INTERIOR ORE/WA/NRN ID MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX.

..DARROW.. 03/24/2014

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