DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240728
SWODY3
SPC AC 240728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO TREND MORE ZONAL
AND PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE
A DEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE GRADUALLY MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM
THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...IS FORECAST RAPIDLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS
THE PACIFIC COAST...TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS CONCERNING THE
MANNER/SPEED WITH WHICH THIS OCCURS...AND ITS IMPACT ON SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN/ALONG A LEE SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
RIDGING ALONG THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE SLOW TO
RECEDE AND WEAKEN. AND INLAND MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH /VIA THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/...AS WELL AS ABOVE
THE MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE GULF COAST...STILL APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT MODEST.

THE LACK OF A MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY WILL LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IN
TURN IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT AT
LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING WEAK INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO APPEAR TO EXIST BENEATH THE
UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE WEST.

..KERR.. 03/24/2014

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