DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 080752
SWODY3
SPC AC 080751

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CST SAT MAR 08 2014

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...

LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL EJECTING NRN
MEXICO TROUGH ACROSS TX INTO THE WRN GULF. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE TO A LONGITUDE AROUND 96W WHILE
THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY DOWNSTREAM NEAR 92W. ADDITIONALLY...THE NAM
IS DEEPER AND A BIT SOUTH...THOUGH SFC REFLECTION IS SIMILAR IN ALL
MODELS. WHILE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCT
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX/SRN LA THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY COULD APPROACH THE SRN-MOST
DELTA REGION OF LA LATE IN THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE
WRN/CNTRL GULF BASIN AND THIS AIR MASS WILL ADVANCE NWD TO NEAR THE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES COASTAL LA.
LATEST THINKING IS MARITIME TROPICAL INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND MEAGER INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

...NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...

COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE INTERIOR INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION MONDAY.
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS ERN WA/ORE AND PARTS OF ID SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 03/08/2014

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