ACUS48 KWNS 110809
SWOD48
SPC AC 110808
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS AGREE BROAD NWLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD BE NOTED DURING THE
DAY4-8 TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING THE
SPEED/MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG. LATEST GFS IS VERY RELUCTANT ALLOWING MEANINGFUL MOISTURE
TO ADVANCE INLAND AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER ERN CONUS
LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DIGS NRN
ROCKIES SPEED MAX SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH INTO MEXICO
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BUOYANCY TO RETURN INTO TX THIS WEEKEND
AND ACROSS FL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES PREDICTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 03/11/2014
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