ACUS48 KWNS 130824
SWOD48
SPC AC 130823
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THE DAY4-8 TIME FRAME AS
MODELS DIVERGE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW AS IT DIGS INTO
NRN MEXICO. ADDITIONALLY...ECMWF GENERATES A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/WRN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY THEN
EJECTS THIS FEATURE TOWARD NRN FL TUESDAY. GFS DOES NOT DEPICT THIS
FEATURE THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA ON MONDAY. IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/BUOYANCY CAN RETURN TO
FL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISCREPANCIES IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS PREDICTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 03/13/2014
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