DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 080939
SWOD48
SPC AC 080938

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CST SAT MAR 08 2014

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SOUTHEASTERN U.S./FL...

UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG INTO NRN MEXICO THEN EJECT ACROSS THE NRN
GULF BASIN IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY OR
PERHAPS AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
EJECTING TROUGH AS SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL FLOW DIGS INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS FORCING A QUICKER-MOVING FEATURE. WHILE TIMING OF EJECTING
TROUGH IS IN DOUBT...IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW BUOYANT AIR MASS
WILL BE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. A
PLUME OF PW IN EXCESS OF 1.5 IN IS PROGGED TO ADVECT INLAND AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH BY LATEST ECMWF THUS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
BE AVAILABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY ORGANIZED TSTMS. IF
MODEST LAPSE RATES CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THE PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS MAY APPROACH LEVELS REQUIRED FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN SPEED/INSTABILITY WILL NOT INTRODUCE A 30
PERCENT RISK AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 03/08/2014

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