MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0176

ACUS11 KWNS 120911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120911
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-121415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IND...NRN OH...SERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 120911Z - 121415Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE SNOW FROM CNTRL IL TO SWRN LOWER MI WILL DEVELOP
EWD THROUGH DAYBREAK AND SHOULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS MODERATE
RAIN TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY
FOR A FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 992 MB CYCLONE OVER
S-CNTRL IND WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARCING EWD TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY. THIS CYCLONE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN DOWNSTREAM OF TWO AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONGLY
FORCED ASCENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE MAINTAINED...YIELDING A PERSISTENT
SWATH OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LEAD IMPULSE. THIS
ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE CYCLONE
WILL AID IN A NW TO SE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OWING TO A DEEP NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE JUST BELOW FREEZING ALIGNED WITH THE STRONGEST
ASCENT. FARTHER N ACROSS LOWER MI...WHERE SNOW IS ALREADY
OCCURRING...RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS
PASSES OVER THROUGH MID-MORNING.

..GRAMS.. 03/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 41048600 41268616 41678595 42298484 42648367 42868248
41448165 41088238 40828423 40858524 40928568 41048600

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