MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0191

ACUS11 KWNS 161251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161251
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL / MIDDLE FL PANHANDLE / EXTREME SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161251Z - 161415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS INITIALLY OVER SWRN AL AND MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN
PORTION OF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL MOVE INTO SERN AL AND THE MIDDLE FL
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND
A TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

DISCUSSION...12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE FL
PANHANDLE HAVE SHOWN A 2-3 DEG F RISE IN DEWPOINTS OVER THE PAST 2
HRS WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MIDDLE FL PANHANDLE COAST AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND OVER THE
INTERIOR FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL. DESPITE RATHER HOSTILE LAPSE
RATES INITIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE FL PANHANDLE REGION /REF. 12Z TLH
RAOB/...A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INFLUX OF LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND
MODEST DIABATIC HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION
AND THE THREAT FOR STORMS BY MID MORNING OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT AL/GA WILL BE
AIDED IN PART BY A STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME COINCIDENT WITH
A BELT OF 50 KT SLY H85 FLOW. STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
MORE THAN ADEQUATELY SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...MOST LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH INTERMITTENT EMBEDDED QLCS/SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE AND CIRCULATIONS. AN ATTENDANT...ALBEIT
CONDITIONAL...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS AS THE SQUALL LINE FROM THE W MOVES INTO THE AREA OR
ADDITIONAL ISOLD STORMS DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE. AS A
RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONSIDERED FOR AREAS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 130.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 03/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 31538611 31338527 30848485 29768494 29988556 30438636
31538611

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