MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0205

ACUS11 KWNS 231403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231403
FLZ000-ALZ000-231500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231403Z - 231500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE ONGOING SMALL QLCS APPROACHING THE WEST SIDE OF MOBILE
WILL BE ADVANCING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
STRONG SFC WINDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...STORM MOTION ON THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING...SMALL QLCS
APPROACHING MOBILE IS AROUND 50 KT. REGARDLESS...RADIAL VELOCITIES
AT THE LOWEST TILT FROM KMOB CONTINUE TO DECREASE...IMPLYING A
DECREASE IN SFC GUSTS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEPART HIGHER
PRE-FRONTAL THETA-E RELEGATED TO SERN MS/SERN LA. WITH LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW COMPONENT PER VWP DATA AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...INFLOW SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AS THE
CONVECTION SPREADS EWD REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC WINDS.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 03/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...

LAT...LON 30478808 30678830 30818813 30858780 30658709 30448695
30338735 30478808

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