MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0208

ACUS11 KWNS 271647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271647
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-271915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO...FAR NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271647Z - 271915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DISCRETE STORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS WILL FAVOR A RISK OF SEVERE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES PEAKING DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 992 MB CYCLONE OVER FAR
SERN NEB WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT TO THE E/SE ACROSS NRN MO. A
DRYLINE IS MIXING EWD INTO ERN KS WITH A COLD FRONT LAGGING JUST
BEHIND AT PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL KS. A CONFINED PLUME OF 50-55 DEG F
SURFACE DEW POINTS EXISTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN ERN KS AND WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO WRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. CU DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED
ALONG THE DRYLINE W OF EMP...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TIED TO
THE DRYLINE OWING TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS/INHIBITION DOWNSTREAM IN
MO ATTM. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
E/NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY. DESPITE MLCAPE REMAINING WEAK AT
AOB 1000 J/KG...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER MODIFIED RAP/NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR PER
TWX/EAX VWP DATA SHOULD FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38099617 39179597 39859591 40199529 40239471 40079389
39729347 39069325 36949404 36339471 36359557 36779625
37309638 38099617

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.