DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

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Sender: WX-STORM Storm-related weather products
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Poster: SIU Weather Processor <ldm@WEATHER.ADMIN.NIU.EDU>
Subject: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
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ACUS01 KWNS 100557
SWODY1
SPC AC 100555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE FEATURES MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF THE CONUS RESULT IN MEAN LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING.
MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL ALSO INCREASE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
TRANSITION INTO AN EWD-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE HOWEVER -- AT
LEAST WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST -- WILL BE A WARM
FRONT MOVING NWD OUT OF THE NRN GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY.

..SRN/ERN LA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS LA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION --
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER FEATURES --
AFFECTS THIS REGION. PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ WILL LIKELY EXIST BY AFTERNOON.

DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 40 KT SPREADING ACROSS
THIS REGION...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS SRN AND ERN LA DESPITE LACK OF CLARITY WITH RESPECT
TO THE DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE EVENT.

.GOSS/TAYLOR.. 04/10/2007

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