Sender: WX-STORM Storm-related weather products
<WX-STORM@LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU>
Poster: SIU Weather Processor <ldm@WEATHER.ADMIN.NIU.EDU>
Subject: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
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ACUS01 KWNS 101236
SWODY1
SPC AC 101234
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2007
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
BROAD BELT OF WESTERLIES UNDERCUTTING NRN CANADIAN RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN PROGRESSIVE/SHORT WAVELENGTH PATTERN ACROSS THE LWR 48.
SOME AMPLIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE CNTRL RCKYS...AND
CONTINUED NE MOTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND LOW ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO RISE IN
THE EAST. FARTHER S...TWO WEAKER DISTURBANCES ...ONE NOW OVER CNTRL
TX AND THE OTHER OVER THE NW GULF...SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED IN
STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM RCKYS TROUGH.
AT LWR LEVELS...EXISTING W/E FRONT IN THE NRN GULF IS NOW LIFTING
NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS/LEE TROUGHING
AHEAD OF RCKYS IMPULSE. THE WRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE LWR MS VLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT WITH RCKYS
TROUGH REACHES ERN AR/WRN LA AND SE TX. NWD PROGRESS OF THE GULF
FRONT OVER THE FL AREA MAY BE MORE LIMITED AS WEAKENING UPR
DISTURBANCE INDUCES WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL N OF
THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NERN GULF AND CNTRL/NRN FL.
..SRN/ERN LA...
SCTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NE ACROSS LA TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE INFLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM TX DISTURBANCE
FURTHER DESTABILIZE AREA NEAR WARM FRONT. WIDESPREAD NATURE OF
CONVECTION LIKELY WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF SFC HEATING...ALTHOUGH
POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY /WITH MLCAPE AOA 500 J/KG/ MAY
DEVELOP. WITH WSWLY 500 MB FLOW OF 40-45 KTS...AMPLE SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AS FRONT
MOVES ASHORE OVER SE LA. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER...THAT THE STRONGEST
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL HAVE MOVED LARGELY E OF LA BY
MID AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND
INCREASED CAPPING IN WAKE OF UPR SYSTEM...ONLY LOW CONDITIONAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM. BRIEF TORNADOES OR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL SEVERE
THREATS WERE SUSTAINED SFC-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP.
..CNTRL/SRN FL...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS SRN/CNTRL FL TODAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING A TPA/MLB LINE BY EVENING. APPROACH OF CNTRL GULF UPR
DISTURBANCE/SFC WAVE...AND FAVORABLY-TIMED DIURNAL CYCLE... SUGGEST
THAT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND S OF FRONT LATER TODAY. CLOUDS
FROM EXISTING GULF STORMS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MUCH OF
FL...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 1000 J/KG/...AND SHEAR /40 KT WSW
FLOW AT 500 MB/ MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND.
..ERN TX PANHANDLE/SW OK...
A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE IN WARM SECTOR OF LEE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
AMPLIFYING/DIFFLUENT RCKYS TROUGH. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL
CLOUD LAYER FLOW MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH-BASED LINE OF
CONVECTION/STORMS ALONG LEE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD A
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.
.CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/10/2007
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