MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0442

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Subject: MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0442
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ACUS11 KWNS 101446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101446
LAZ000-TXZ000-101645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101446Z - 101645Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND
SOUTHERN LA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL. AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
WARRANT A WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHERN
LA. LOCAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN MID LEVEL ROTATION IN A FEW OF THE
STORMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PRIMARY WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST
OFF THE LA COAST...WITH BULK OF CONVECTION REMAINING ROOTED ABOVE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VAD
PROFILES INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAPSE
RATES ALOFT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED ORGANIZED /PERHAPS SUPERCELL/
STORMS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING IN. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF
INTENSE CONVECTION...ALONG WITH LIMITED TIME FRAME OF
THREAT...SUGGEST AT THIS TIME THAT WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

.HART.. 04/10/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

31699394 31149191 30129025 29079037 29149167 29369395
29739443 30989436

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