Sender: WX-STORM Storm-related weather products
<WX-STORM@LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU>
Poster: SIU Weather Processor <ldm@WEATHER.ADMIN.NIU.EDU>
Subject: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
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ACUS01 KWNS 101628
SWODY1
SPC AC 101626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2007
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG MID LEVEL JET MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN STATES. THIS HAS INDUCED
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHEAST NM. THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO PARTS OF EAST TX AND LA...THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR THREE AREAS OF LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK TODAY.
..LA...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS EAST
TX. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AHEAD OF TROUGH IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF THE LA COAST...WITH
STORMS OVER LA BEING ELEVATED ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
NEVERTHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE
SUGGEST A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS
THROUGH THE MORNING. PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL DIMINISH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LIKELY ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT.
..CENTRAL FL...
LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS IS
NOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA...FOCUSED ALONG
SURFACE WARM FRONT. ISOLATED CELLS EMBEDDED IN THIS MCS HAVE SHOWN
SOME ORGANIZATION...AND MAY REMAIN INTENSE AS THEY MOVE INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THIS ZONE.
HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/ AND STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
..NORTHWEST TX/SOUTHWEST OK...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING THIS TODAY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...IN
VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE WARM FRONT. STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK. LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG
WARM FRONT AND NEAR SURFACE LOW MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AND RESULT IN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. AREAL
COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
.HART/GRAMS.. 04/10/2007
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