MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0443

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Sender: WX-STORM Storm-related weather products
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Poster: SIU Weather Processor <ldm@WEATHER.ADMIN.NIU.EDU>
Subject: MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0443
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ACUS11 KWNS 101908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101908
FLZ000-102015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101908Z - 102015Z

SCT TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
S-CNTRL FL. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT.
OVERALL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS
EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADS EWD FROM THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THUS...A WW IS UNLIKELY.

19Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
NRN LEE COUNTY EWD INTO NRN MARTIN COUNTY. S OF THIS
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING NEAR 70 AND MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
BENEATH AN INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL JET /100 KT TO 300 MB/...EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR HAS NOW APPROACHED 40 KTS. AS STORMS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN A FAVORABLY WARM/MOIST
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH ANY DISCRETE
STORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE MITIGATED BY RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS /AOB 20 KTS IN
THE LOWEST 2 KM/ PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS.

.GRAMS.. 04/10/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

27288072 27278011 26757987 26327992 25958012 25868078
25978138 26368164 26918150 27248087

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