Sender: WX-STORM Storm-related weather products
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Poster: SIU Weather Processor <ldm@WEATHER.ADMIN.NIU.EDU>
Subject: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
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ACUS01 KWNS 101944
SWODY1
SPC AC 101942
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEAR THE RED RIVER OF OK/TX...
..SOUTH FL...
LONG LIVED MCS CONTINUES ITS EWD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WRN FL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A MCV HAS EVOLVED WITHIN LARGER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ROUGHLY 40 SW SRQ. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG E-W FRONTAL ZONE FROM SARASOTA TO ST.
LUCIE COUNTY WHILE PARTIAL SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVE WEAK...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE WILL
BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING MCS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF WHICH SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PREDOMINATE SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS AND
EXISTENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
..RED RIVER OF TX/OK...
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LOWEST 3 KM WITHIN POST
DRY LINE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. ROBUST HIGH BASED THERMALS ARE NOW MOISTENING AND
DEEPENING AS EVIDENT BY EXPANDING CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CNTRL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. BACK EDGE OF THICKER
STRATUS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NCNTRL TX
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOIST SECTOR TO BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WITH CDS NOW 80 F...IT APPEARS CU WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45-60KT. LATEST
THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE TX/OK
BORDER...POSSIBLY POST DRY LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY 22Z...THEN
MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD AT ROUGHLY 40 KT AHEAD OF REORGANIZING SFC LOW.
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE NEAR THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING.
SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO NWRN TX WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER CONVERGENCE
WITHIN INCREASINGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW REGIME.
.DARROW.. 04/10/2007
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