MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0444

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Sender: WX-STORM Storm-related weather products
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Poster: SIU Weather Processor <ldm@WEATHER.ADMIN.NIU.EDU>
Subject: MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0444
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ACUS11 KWNS 101952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101952
OKZ000-TXZ000-102115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK...EXTREME N-CNTRL TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101952Z - 102115Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY 21Z. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AT 19Z...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED AROUND 50 E AMA...WITH A COLD
FRONT ARCING W/NWWD INTO NERN NM AND A WARM FRONT ARCING E/SEWD
ACROSS SWRN OK INTO N-CNTRL TX. AGITATED CU DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED
TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
CROSSING THE TX PANHANDLE. 18Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG/ WILL BECOME UNCAPPED
IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AFTER 20Z. DESPITE THE MEAGER
INSTABILITY...STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. 19Z RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR HAS REACHED 40 TO 50 KTS. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KTS AS DAYTIME HEATING PEAKS. VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 35 TO 45
DEGREES EXISTS ALONG WITH WLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
IMPINGING EWD. FARTHER E TOWARDS THE WARM FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL
BE MORE MOIST. THUS...LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE A GREATER THREAT
TOWARDS S-CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL TX.

.GRAMS.. 04/10/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

34169994 34420048 34860092 35290086 35740026 35769947
35339850 34969795 34219784 33889835 34009924

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