SWODY1
SPC AC 281630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT APR 28 2007
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR W/SW TX...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD WITH A REX BLOCK
CONFIGURATION OVER THE ROCKIES/NW MEXICO AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
OVER THE ERN STATES. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ERN TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INVOF INDIANA WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 250-500
J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
..FAR W/SW TX AREA...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE LITTLE UNTIL AN
UPSTREAM SRN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES THIS AREA BY TOMORROW. A PLUME
OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WNWWD
ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT NE OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SW TX THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ALLOW STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
MAY SUPPORT SLOW-MOVING STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 04/28/2007
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