SWODY2
SPC AC 281728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2007
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SRN NM AND SWRN/FAR W TX...
UPR LOW SPINNING OVER CNTRL SONORA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENEWD INTO SERN
NM AND SWRN/FAR W TX SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A WEAK ELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS REGION.
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING UPSLOPE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS
BANKED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME BINOVC
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTN. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SPORADIC TSTMS. HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL BE
CONFINED TO SRN NM INTO SWRN TX ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
BIG BEND REGION AND STOCKTON PLATEAU WHERE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE PRESENT AMIDST STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. FARTHER NW...HAIL
COULD ALSO OCCUR...BUT UPDRAFT LONGEVITY MAY BE MITIGATED BY WEAK
FLOW BENEATH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW.
..UPR MS RVR VLY EWD INTO THE GRTLKS REGION...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL AMPLIFY OVER
NWRN ONTARIO AND DIG INTO THE NRN GRTLKS REGION/ERN ONTARIO BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
INTO THE GRTLKS REGION...UPR MS RVR VLY AND CORN BELT BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARM TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EWD ALONG/S OF
THIS FRONT WITH MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STRONGEST SUPPORT FOR TSTMS WILL BE ALONG/E OF THE MS
RVR VLY WHERE CINH WILL BE WEAKER. BUT...BUOYANCY THIS FAR E SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WEAK AND SVR WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DESPITE
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR.
FARTHER W IN THE CORN BELT/PLAINS...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD WEAKEN AS PRIMARY MASS CONVERGENCE TRANSLATES E AND THE HIGH
PLAINS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO RESPOND TO A PAC NW TROUGH. GIVEN
WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND CINH...TSTM THREATS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
..NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...
AN UPR TROUGH SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF WA/ORE WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD INTO THE PAC NW BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTN THEN INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SELY FLOW WILL ADVECT
MEAGER MOISTURE NWWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
SUNDAY AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
NRN ID INTO WRN MT SUNDAY AFTN AND COULD MATURE INTO A TSTM CLUSTER
OR TWO ACROSS NRN MT INTO ND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LLJ. NO SVR
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
.RACY.. 04/28/2007
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