SWODY1
SPC AC 181950
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT WED APR 18 2007
VALID 182000Z - 191200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN
MT INTO ERN WY...
..LOWER OH VALLEY...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER
JET ACROSS IL/IND INTO KY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SRN KY AT TIMES...BOUNDARY
LAYER APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LACKING IN CONVERGENCE FARTHER NW IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER SPEED MAX. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE YET TO ADJUST SUFFICIENTLY FOR PARCELS TO ASCEND FREELY DESPITE
STRONG SFC HEATING. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
STRUGGLING UPDRAFTS WITH ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
..LEE OF NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
DEEP LARGE SCALE FORCING IS SPREADING ACROSS ERN ID/UT/WRN WY THIS
AFTERNOON...PER EWD ADVANCEMENT OF THICKER CLOUD
SHIELD/PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
WITHIN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NWRN WY INTO SWRN
MT...THOUGH HAVE RECENTLY DECREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
DOWNSTREAM...STRONG SFC HEATING IS UNDERWAY FROM NERN CO...NWD INTO
ERN MT WHERE SFC-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC.
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXTREMELY LIMITED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN WY INTO ERN UT IT APPEARS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO DEVELOP JUST DOWNSTREAM WHERE SFC DEW POINTS
ARE APPROACHING 40F. PARCEL BUOYANCY IS MUCH STRONGER ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG ACROSS ERN WY
INTO SERN MT. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS CU FIELD
IS DEEPENING/EXPANDING FROM THE NRN SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS
NEAR CPR...NWD INTO EXTREME SERN MT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE WITHIN THIS AGITATED CU FIELD WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED
ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR DEEP
SFC-BASED CONVECTION...SLIGHT RISK CERTAINLY SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
.DARROW.. 04/18/2007
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