SWODY2
SPC AC 181750
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT WED APR 18 2007
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..WESTERN NC/SOUTH CAROLINA...
WELL DEFINED UPPER SPEED MAX WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO
ERN GA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LOSES
CIRCULATION IDENTITY OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. EVEN SO...VERY COLD
H5 TEMPERATURES...AOB MINUS 20C...WILL OVERSPREAD NW-SE ORIENTED LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ERN TN TO NEAR THE GA/SC COAST WHICH
SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HOLD ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AS WARM SECTOR ACROSS GA HEATS
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG THE SC/GA BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ACTUALLY FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT STORM
ROTATION...AND POSSIBLY WEAK SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF
SFC DEW POINTS CAN RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S AHEAD OF DEVELOPMENT.
WILL MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WY INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD FORCE
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A NARROW ZONE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THIS STRONGLY
CONVERGENT/FORCED WIND SHIFT. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION...WITH
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL EVOLVE IN ADVANCE OF THIS STRONG
SHORTWAVE. THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
UNSTABLE...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY SHOULD EXIST FOR AT LEAST A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KS...WEAK RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF NRN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG TRAILING
FRONT DURING THE MID DAY HOURS. STRONG HEATING WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR DESTABILIZATION AND ANY HOPES FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THIS REGION. UNTIL HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE SURGES INTO WRN
KS LATE IN THE PERIOD IT WILL PROVE DIFFICULT DESTABILIZING THIS
REGION ADEQUATELY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
HOWEVER EVOLVE WITHIN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY GENERATE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.
.DARROW.. 04/18/2007
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