SWODY1
SPC AC 220101
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN
KS...CENTRAL/ERN OK PANHANDLE...CENTRAL/ERN TX PANHANDLE....
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM WRN MN TO
CENTRAL/WRN NRB TO TX PERMIAN BASIN...
..SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...CONUS PORTION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY WRN TROUGHING...AND RIDGING FROM WRN GULF ACROSS
GREAT LAKES TO NRN QUE. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED LOW
-- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER
WRN/CENTRAL NM -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED AT 23Z OVER SERN CO
WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH WEAKER ONE EVIDENT IN NERN CO...THEN BECOME
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH MID/UPPER LOW BY END OF PERIOD OVER
WRN KS. DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INVOF TX/NM BORDER MAY MOVE EWD INTO
SWRN KS AND NWRN TX PANHANDLE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE SRN PORTION
ACROSS EXTREME SERN NM ALREADY IS RETREATING PER 33 DEG F DEW POINT
RISE AT INK BETWEEN 22-23Z. SHARPLY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS
NEWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL NEB...SERN
SD...W-CENTRAL MN. THIS FROM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN
PLAINS AND REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM NE OF SFC LOW.
..CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...E OF DRYLINE...
ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT OF
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...OCNL SVR GUSTS AND STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING HOURS...UNDER FAVORABLY INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR.
FOR NEAR-TERM FCST DETAILS REF SPC WWS 156-157 AND LATEST ASSOCIATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. SVR POTENTIAL WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARD
DAMAGING WIND AND MRGL HAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND DIMINISH WITH EWD
EXTENT TOWARD MORNING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE
STABLE AIR MASS.
..CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ALREADY EVIDENT OVER NRN NEB AND EXTREME
S-CENTRAL SD...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING/SPREADING NEWD FROM
NERN CO AND ERN NEB PANHANDLE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
INCREASE DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. REF WWS 154-155 AND ACCOMPANYING
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST GUIDANCE ON SVR THREAT.
ONE OR MORE MCS WITH SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL MAY EVOLVE AFTER DARK AND
MOVE NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...W OF AXIS OF 50-70 KT LLJ.
FARTHER NE...LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND MORE MRGL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT SVR THREAT THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING OVER PORTIONS SERN ND
AND NWRN MN. REF WW 158 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
LATEST INFO.
.EDWARDS.. 04/22/2007
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