MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0533

ACUS11 KWNS 220116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220116
MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-220315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 156...

VALID 220116Z - 220315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 156 CONTINUES.

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE DRYLINE AT THIS TIME
EXTENDING N-S ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
ACROSS KS IS JUST BELOW 1000 J/KG MLCAPE...YET DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 50-60 KT IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH NOW SWINGING INTO THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN
KS/SERN CO.

THUS...WOULD EXPECT INCREASING ACTIVITY TO MOVE NEWD FROM THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF SUPPORT
FOR UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY IS ALSO LOCATED IN FAVORABLE EXIT
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC ANALYSIS WHICH
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES AS WELL AS UVVS.

.MCCARTHY.. 04/22/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

43010121 43240119 43430122 43670123 43800121 43820112
43900108 44060108 44130109 44200117 44290118 44410116
44580115 44670113 44740107 44750089 44770074 44790058
44880044 45060039 45230036 45350035 45540037 45780038
45870042 45860020 45819969 45849937 45819867 45829823
45879788 45879741 45849691 45849662 45779663 45659682
45539686 45489684 45439673 45389663 45249645 45159646
45029645 44859644 44709644 44619643 44539644 44529657
44549695 44539710 44469716 44369717 44249716 44209716
44189727 44189733 44119735 43999737 43879739 43849740
43799764 43799783 43809796 43679800 43559801 43469803
43389811 43279812 43099808 42989807 42879805 42849811
42859831 43009854 42989876 42989920 42989987 42980021
42970072 42980110

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