DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221229
SWODY1
SPC AC 221227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS
VALLEY...

..CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...

VIRTUALLY STACKED SFC/UPR LOW OVER WRN KS THIS AM WILL CONTINUE
ENEWD INTO WRN IA BY THIS EVENING. BAND OF STRONG WIND FIELDS HAS
ROTATED TO S AND E QUAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY LIMITING PARAMETER FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE THE
OVERALL MARGINAL INSTABILITY. APPEARS FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS THAT A DRY SLOT IS ROTATING NEWD INTO
CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT SURFACE
HEATING ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S IN THE SAME
AREA...MLCAPES COULD CLIMB TO 1000 J/KG.

BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN SUPPORT OF SUPERCELLS
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE STACKED LOW
VICINITY CENTRAL NE/KS BORDER HEADED TOWARD WRN IA. PRIMARY THREAT
TODAY SHOULD BE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS BOTH FROM ANY
SUPERCELL THAT FORMS AND WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ZONE OF STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE LOW.

TORNADOS...IF THEY OCCUR WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE ENHANCED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW FROM NERN KS/SERN NE
EWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEGREE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR GIVEN THE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

.HALES/JEWELL.. 04/22/2007

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