SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221557
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-221730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NE....SWRN IA...NWRN MO...NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221557Z - 221730Z
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE NEED FOR A TORNADO WATCH ACROSS PARTS
OF SERN NEB/NERN KS AREAS BEFORE NOON CDT. THE WATCH AREA COULD
EXTEND EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN IA AND NWRN MO.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LBF RADAR DEPICTED CENTER OF NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED AND COMPACT CYCLONE MOVING FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY
KS TOWARD HARLAN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES OF SCNTRL NEB. DEEP-LAYER
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LEND SUPPORT
SOME INCREASE IN WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM NERN KS TO SERN NEB...AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY. ONGOING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MIXING ACROSS SERN NEB HAS
ALREADY RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF N-S ORIENTED HORIZONTAL
CONVECTIVE ROLL CLOUDS WHERE NOSE OF 70-80KT MID LEVEL JET HAS
SPREAD ATOP NARROW LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS.
WIND PROFILER INFORMATION CURRENTLY SUGGESTS RELATIVELY LIMITED LOW
LEVEL TURNING...BUT MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.
DEEP SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN AS UPPER GRADIENT RELAXES NEAR THE
LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WITHIN/NEAR DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITHIN SYSTEM DRY SLOT...AND STRONG ASCENT ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF
MID LEVEL JET COULD FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO MESOSCALE DYNAMICS
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZING TSTMS. EXPECT ONE OR TWO BANDS OF ROBUST
SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND
TORNADOES TO EVOLVE FROM DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
.CARBIN.. 04/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
39379964 40219982 41379883 41349676 41139540 40169448
39289483 38889588 38509764
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