SWODY1
SPC AC 230037
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF IA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO....
..SYNOPSIS...
LATEST IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS LIFTED NEWD AND
IS OVER NWRN IA THIS EVENING. NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
DROPPED INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW LOW
OVER NWRN IA WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SWD/SWWD THROUGH KS
INTO SWRN OK. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS IA INTO
SERN MN AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FROM TODAY'S CONVECTION HAS
LIMITED ANY FURTHER HEATING.
..IA...
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY. REMAINING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL POSE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS
NWRN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THERE MAY STILL BE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IN IA BEFORE TOTALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
12Z DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS.
..SERN OK...
ONLY A FEW SMALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED ON RADAR AT THIS
TIME...AND THINK THAT THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..GREAT BASIN REGION...
LATEST LIGHTNING DATA DOES SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SRN NV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
.MCCARTHY.. 04/23/2007
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