SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222336
IAZ000-MOZ000-230130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN IA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163...
VALID 222336Z - 230130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163
CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS LOSS OF SFC HEATING
CAUSES BOUNDARY LAYER TO STABILIZE...REDUCING BUOYANCY OF
INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS. BAND OF TSTMS MOVING NEWD FROM WW 164 MAY
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL HAIL/GUSTS TO SVR LEVELS DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
IT ENTERS WRN PORTION OF WW 163. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ROUGHLY 40-60 NM WIDE CORRIDOR OF SFC-BASED INFLOW REMAINS
AHEAD OF LINE FROM CENTRAL IA SWD TO VICINITY MO BORDER...S OF WHICH
CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES MARKEDLY. LIFT ALONG ASSOCIATED FORCING
BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION...PERHAPS EVEN AS
ELEVATED TSTMS ONCE SFC LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. AS ACTIVITY MOVES
EWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE SFC AIR FROM ABOUT 00Z
ONWARD...THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WILL DIMINISH...THOUGH
ISOLATED/MRGL HAIL MAY STILL OCCUR WITH STRONGEST CELLS. IF THESE
TRENDS PROCEED AS ANTICIPATED...REMAINING PORTIONS WW MAY BE
CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION.
.EDWARDS.. 04/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
40599219 40579356 41159357 41179380 41879375 42199373
42219395 42659399 42649434 43499442 43489206 42269208
42289229 41519232 41519246 41149242 41169212
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