SWODY1
SPC AC 191947
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT THU APR 19 2007
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SRN APPALACHIANS TO SC COAST...
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DEEPENING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF UPPER SPEED MAX. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SEWD...ALONG WITH FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT...WHICH SHOULD AID
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ERN EDGE OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING. GA IN PARTICULAR HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN WEAK WLY FLOW REGIME WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
70S. ADDITIONALLY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS SC SHOULD
WITH TIME INTERACT WITH SEA BREEZE POSSIBLY ENHANCING UPDRAFTS AT
THAT TIME. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREAT.
..NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
REGION OF WY/SD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CU FIELD IS EXPANDING
WITHIN THE CLEAR SLOT...INVOF THIS CIRCULATION...A VERY NARROW ZONE
OF PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL
SD. MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A FEW STORMS MAY EVOLVE ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF NEWD-EXPANDING CU FIELD NEAR THE MAIN WIND SHIFT.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES IT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
FARTHER SOUTH...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING IS GRADUALLY UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOW RISING
INTO THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS I-70. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
THIS BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY QUITE WELL WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU
DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK...AND EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL
KS. LARGE SCALE IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION
WITH RIDGY CIRRUS NOW SPREADING ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/OK. IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN WHETHER CONVERGENCE FARTHER NORTH OVER KS WILL PROVE
ADEQUATE IN INITIATING...THEN MAINTAINING THUNDERSTORMS. IF SO...A
FEW UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.
.DARROW.. 04/19/2007
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