MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0516

ACUS11 KWNS 191708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191708
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-191945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT THU APR 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC INTO SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191708Z - 191945Z

TSTMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE TN/NC/VA APPALACHIANS SEWD INTO THE SC
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTN/EVE. SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
PSBL IN ISOLD STRONGER STORMS.

H5 LOW /AOB MINUS 20 DEG C/ WAS LOCATED OVER THE KY COALFIELDS EARLY
THIS AFTN...ROTATING ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGER SCALE SYSTEM
OVER THE N ATLANTIC BASIN. THE KY IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SEWD INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE EVE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
PLACES A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT FROM JUST W OF KAVL-KCAE- KCHS. THE
FRONT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH WINDS VEERING AND STRATUS DISSOLVING
IN THE COLDER AIR. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL INTO
THE 70S IN THE SAVANNAH RVR VLY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
UPSTATE...NCNTRL AND COASTAL SC. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...WITH SFC DEW POINTS ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 DEG F.
BUT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SEWD DURING THE AFTN AND CONTRIBUTE TO A
BUOYANT AIR MASS.

TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VA/TN/NC SHOULD
EXPAND/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NC AND SC DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTN/EVE. STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE WEAK FRONT
WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD EXIST. WIND
PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...BUT MEAGER MOISTURE WILL
TEND TO LIMIT ORGANIZATION. PRIMARY MODE WILL BE LOW-TOPPED
MULTICELL STRUCTURES...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FOSTER HAIL PRODUCTION AND RELATIVELY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY YIELD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY BOWING
SEGMENTS. ATTM...EXPECT THE CURRENT THREAT TO REMAIN ISOLD...BUT
WILL MONITOR FOR A PSBL WW LATER THIS AFTN.

.RACY.. 04/19/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

32408075 34828391 36638230 35218072 33297945

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