SWODY2
SPC AC 191705
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT THU APR 19 2007
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..PLAINS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY LATE DAY2
AS UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN U.S. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PROVE THE MAIN INSTIGATOR IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
ONE CLEAR SIGNAL IN 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
LLJ ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WHERE SPEEDS SHOULD EXCEED 40-50 KT.
UNDOUBTEDLY ANY MOISTENING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ELEVATED CONVECTION AT TIMES...LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER KS DURING THE
DAY1 PERIOD...SHIFTING/SPREADING NWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS THIS REGION
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH
POSITION...IT APPEARS THE DRY LINE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE TX/NM BORDER...NWD INTO ERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE. THIS
ZONE WILL CERTAINLY RECEIVE STRONG HEATING...LIKELY ENOUGH FOR CAP
REMOVAL. WEAK LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND MEAGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HOWEVER WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL IN ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...SHOULD BE NOTED ALONG THE
DRY LINE FROM WEST TX...NWD INTO WRN NEB. LIMITED COVERAGE WILL NOT
WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.
.DARROW.. 04/19/2007
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